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Effective
3 November 2006;
NACM
Houston is very pleased to introduce Credit Scoring on NACM Reports! The
scoring module will be available to you on all
NACM Houston Reports. You are able to purchase a scored Credit Report,
just the Credit Report, or just the Credit Score! Take a few minutes and review the sample scoring
information below.
Credit Scoring
Methodology
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CIC Credit Score |
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CIC Score
(Range=250-750) |
Risk Class (1,2,3,4A,4B,5) |
Score Factors (Click here for explanation) |
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680 |
2 |
There is
no reported current 6 months previous indicating limited
credit history
The historical (6 month) firm's total balance is low.
There is not reported current balance 12 months previous
indicating limited credit history
This score was better than 72.0% of the records in the
Database |
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Overview
The scoring model
was designed to predict late payments using the CIC National Database
that includes over 4.0 million unique trade lines. The score predicts
severe delinquency looking forward 6 months. The predictive
variables include current aging status, historical aging (including
trends and variance in payment trends) and other business
characteristics.
Key Facts
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Risk Rate
Definition |
The model predicts the probability that more than 25% of the
firms total balance will be 90+ days past due over the next 6
months |
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Predictive
Data |
The score leverages 12 months of historical trade data to
predict future behavior; including aging dollars, percentage,
business credit tenure and historical aging trends. In the
development of the model, over 1,000 predictive attributes were
considered with the final model including 47 unique variables. |
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Predictive
Variables |
Total Dollar Balance
Total dollar amount and percentage of balance that is current,
past due, 60+ days past due and 90+ days past due.
Maximum balance over the previous 12 months that is current,
past due, 60+ days past due and 90+ days past due.
Standard deviation in current and past due balances.
Business Tenure on the database. Age of oldest credit
Business location (State). |
Credit Score Output
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Credit
Score |
Score Range: 250 to 750
As the score increases the credit risk decreases. The
probability of RISK doubles with every 60 point drop in
the score. |
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Score
Class |
1
VERY LOW RISK Score Range 724 - 750
2
LOW RISK Score Range 646 - 724
3
LOW TO MODERATE RISK Score Range 518 - 646
4A
HIGH RISK Score Range 458 - 518
4B
VERY HIGH RISK Score Range 350 - 458
5
EXTREME RISK Score Range 250 - 350
NA
Score is Not Available (see detailed description below) |
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NA
Score Descriptions |
·
Firm has current payment status that already meets the Risk
definition with 25% of total balance 90+ days past due
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Firm has bankrupt date on file within the last 12 months
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The firm has a balance over $100K and has fewer than 3 trade
experiences within the last 12 months |
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Score
Commentary |
The score includes up to 3 score factors that provide the most
significant negative factors that lower the firms score. |
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Model
Developer |
For more information you can contact.
Vernon
Gerety Ph.D.
VGAdvisors
LLC
vgerety@vgadvisors.com
215-238-9862 |
Below are two charts that provide performance statistics for the model
looking at the Score Class
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